Hang on Tight — Hiring is a Roller Coaster in 2020

Musings from the spare bedroom office while trying to breathe through a mask.

Deja vu?  July and August are starting to look like March and April all over again. Just as we started to relax and see small glimpses of normalcy a few weeks ago, virus rates start skyrocketing and states start to slowly lock down again. More unknown economic impact is certainly looming. In June, we saw the stock market, hiring and retail all rebound. What will the next iteration of the Coronavirus impact look like and how will it impact business? Let’s look at the most recent pre-hire trends (and do our best to keep a positive outlook).

Cleaning and Security Hiring Trends

First, let’s start with the positive: Hiring in the first week of July was up 28% year over year.  Yes, you read that right. July started off positive when looking year over year. It’s worth noting that due to layoffs and lack of hiring in March-May, our clients had ground to make up, but regardless, it’s a positive trend. July tends to have low hiring rates due to vacations and lack of indoor activities, but seasonality alone doesn’t explain the uptick.

When we look week over week, the trend is not quite as positive:

Hiring by Week

Hiring has taken a step back in July, and the numbers look more like May than June.

Jobs and Applicants

Hiring has taken a dip, but to get a better picture of the hiring landscape we need to look at jobs posted and the resulting applications.

Active Jobs by Week

Job postings trends mimic hiring, which makes sense. Applications are following a similar trend, with a couple exceptions.

Completed Applications by Week

At first glance, the charts appear to follow the exact same trend lines. If you look closer however, the dip in Applications was never as dramatic as Active Jobs posted or Hiring. We’ll spare you the numbers:

It’s still relatively early in July, but what’s concerning is the recent drop in applications relative to jobs posted. We won’t know if this is a trend for another few months, but it’s worth watching.

Cleaning and Security see 80-120% annual turnover, so what are the implications if applications slow? Why are prospective employees no longer applying? Are increased unemployment benefits or the risk of COVID having an impact? These are the questions we’re attempting to answer in the coming weeks. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor these trends and bring you regular updates.